NBA Season Preview 2012 - 2013

What a off season we have had.  So many big name players have new homes for the upcoming season.  I too have found a new home.  I may currently reside in San Francisco, but no worries, I am still, even without Steve Nash, a complete 100% Suns fan.  Now lets be honest about it, I know I will be attending a few Warriors games, and I know they will be the Suns biggest rivals for third place in the Pacific division, but I finally have a chance to go to a game and wear a Jersey with my last name on it.  I am currently in a bidding war on ebay for a David Lee Golden State Warriors jersey.  And by bidding war, I actually mean to say, I am the only person interested in purchasing it.  But no worries, I will be in Oakland on February 2 cheering for the Suns, wearing my Goran Dragic jersey.  What a horrible idea it was for the Suns to ever trade Dragic.  After a season and a half without him, he now returns to the Suns to take over for Steve Nash. But the real downside to the entire situation is that he use to wear number 2 and in his return to the Suns will now be wearing number 1.  This means that my old Dragic jersey is no longer up to date, which is a travesty for me and well, probably only me.  I don't think too many other people jumped on the Dragic bandwagon and bought his jersey, just me.  Unlike the Orlando fans who burnt their Dwight Howard jerseys when he ditched them for the Lakers, I have no desire to burn my Steve Nash jersey as he is possibly the greatest Suns player of all time.  What he was able to do in Phoenix, making it to two Western Conference Finals, and over the past few seasons, carrying a team of sub-par players, was an incredible accomplishment and he will forever be in my heart a Phoenix Sun. It just sucks to see him wearing a Lakers jersey.  After so many epic playoff battles with the Lakers, he joins the enemy.  But still, I can't help but hope he has success.  I wanted him to play for a championship contending team, I just wish it was any other team.

So lets proceed with my 2012 season preview.  My buddy Ed and I made our over/under predictions based on the original Vegas lines that came out about two weeks ago.  Lets take a look at Ed's picks:

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1   Oklahoma City Thunder     60.5  -  Under
2   Los Angeles Lakers           59.5  -  Over
3   San Antonio Spurs             55.5  -  Under
4   Denver Nuggets                 49.5  -  Over
5   Los Angeles Clippers         48.5  -  Over
6   Memphis Grizzlies              48.5  -  Under
7   Dallas Mavericks               45.5  -  Under
8   Utah Jazz                           42.5  -  Over
9   Minnesota Timberwolves    39.5  -  Over
10 Portland Trail Blazers         35.5  -  Under
11 Golden State Warriors       34.5  -  Over
12 Phoenix Suns                     34.5  -  Over
13 Houston Rockets               30.5  -  Under
14 Sacramento Kings             29.5  -  Under
15 New Orleans Hornets        25.5  - Over

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1   Miami Heat                       60.5  - Over
2   Boston Celtics                   51.5  -  Under
3   Indiana Pacers                   51.5  -  Over
4   Chicago Bulls                    47.5  -  Under
5   Philadelphia 76ers             47.5  -  Over
6   New York Kincks             45.5  - Over
7   Atlanta Hawks                  43.5  -  Over
8   Brooklyn Nets                  43.5  -  Over
9   Milwaukee Bucks             36.5  -  Under
10 Cleveland Cavaliers          32.5  -  Under
11 Detroit Pistons                  32.5  -  Under
12 Toronto Raptors               31.5  -  Under
13 Washington Wizards         31.5  -  Over
14 Orlando Magic                 24.5  -  Under
15 Charlotte Bobcats             21.5  -  Over

NBA FINALS PREDICTION - LAKERS vs. HEAT

In Ed's own words, " As much as I hate to say it, I think it will be Heat and Lakers in the finals with the Heat winning it."

So we will have to keep our eye on Ed's picks.  I have more confidence in Ed than I do in nearly any person.  If he were a gambler, he would be a millionaire by now.  Sadly, he has missed his calling.

Lets move on to my 2012 preseason NBA predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics      51.5  -  Over

I like the changes the Celtics made in the off season.  I like the additions of Jason Terry and Courtney Lee.  I think Jared Sullinger if he can stay healthy will be great coming in off the bench to help the aging Kevin Garnett.
Prediction:  54-28

Brooklyn Nets    43.5  -  Over

I like the Nets, but I don't love them.  They made a lot of changes this year singing Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace, and they were able to keep Deron Williams.  But Deron Williams has not been good for two seasons and no one on the Nets plays great defense.  I think they'll be good, but not amazing.
Prediction:  45-37

New York Knicks   45.5  -  Under

I do not like this team at all going into the season.  I don't think they have meshed together well ever since Carmelo joined Amare.  Jason Kidd is old and well, the entire team is old.  They may possibly be the oldest team in NBA history.
Prediction:   42-40

Philadelphia 76ers   47.5  -  Over

The Sixers picked up their franchise player, Andrew Bynum, in a trade from the Lakers.  Two big questions will determine their season: Can Bynum stay healthy? and Is he ready to lead a team?  I'm assuming he will stay mostly healthy and will adjust well to his role as a leader now that he is not in Kobe's spotlight.
Prediction:   50-32

Toronto Raptors   31.5  -  Over

I like the addition of Kyle Lowry and the draft pick of Terrance Ross.  I think this season will be a big step in the right direction for the Raptors.
Prediction:   34-48

Central Division

Chicago Bulls   47.5  -  Under

The big question is how long will the Bulls be without Derrick Rose? I think this season is almost a throw away season for the Bulls and they have to set their hopes on next season.  But they do have one of the best coaches in the league and a group of talented players.  They'll still be competative, but without Rose, they simply aren't the same team.
Prediction: 43-39

Cleveland Cavaliers   32.5  -  Under

Kyrie Irving should continue to improve as he has already established himself as one of the better young guards in the league.  But I still think they are a few pieces shorts of being a great team.  They did not seem to help themselves by drafting Tristan Thompson so early. 
Prediction:   29-53

Detroit Pistons    32.5  -  Over

I really like their draft pick of Andre Drummond and I believe Brandon Knight will have a big second season.  They should improve, but still aren't great.
Prediction:   35-47

Indiana Pacers   51.5  -  Under

The Pacers were surprisingly really good last year and even gave the Heat a scare in the playoffs.  But I don't think they did much this off season to get any better.
Prediction:  48-34

Milwaukee Bucks   36.5  -  Under

As I have mentioned in this blog before, I love to watch Monta Ellis play.  I think he is a very exciting offensive player.  But he can't play defense.  In Golden State he was paired with an equally exciting player, Steph Curry.  But that backcourt combination, although very exciting, did not have great success.  I think the result will be the same this year with Ellis being joined by Brandon Jennings in the backcourt.
Prediction:   33-49

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks   43.5  -  Over

The Hawks do not have a single player that really jumps out at you when you look at their roster.  They will again be led by Al Horford and Josh Smith, but with the absence of Joe Johnson.  For some reason I get the feeling that this will be a team that plays together well and sneaks up on other teams who over look their talents.
Prediction:  47-35

Charlotte Bobcats   21.5  -  Over

I am not convinced that the Bobcats can win 10 games this year.  They are awful.  But I am betting on Kemba Walker getting better, and of all the players in the 2012 draft, I liked Michael Kidd-Gilchrist better than anyone else.  I hear he has an incredible work ethic and I think his presence will help this team a lot.
Prediction: 22-60

Miami Heat  60.5  -  Over

As Jalen Rose always says, Lebron James is like a dog that has been eating dry dog food for years and finally got to taste scraps from the kitchen table.  Now he knows what real food tastes like and does not want to return to the dry dog food.  Lebron now knows what winning a title tastes like and he wants another, and another, and another.  Ray Allen will help spread out the court and Dwayne Wade is healthy.  I think the Heat will have an historic season.  Almost 1996 Bulls historic, but not quite.
Prediction:   66-16

Orlando Magic  24.5  -  Under

No Dwight Howard.  Remember what happened to the Cavs when Lebron left? They were awful.  They lost 24 straight games. Do I think the Magic have it in them to lost 24 straight? Well, lets just say, I don't think that would be impossible.  They are going to be a really bad team.
Prediction:   21-61

Washington Wizards   31.5  -  Under

I don't know what to think about the Wizards.  John Wall will miss about the first month of the season with a knee injury.  I know it's only one month. But that is not a good way to start out a season.  Hopefully Bradly Beal is as good as expected, but there are too many unknowns with this team.
Prediction:   27-55

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks   45.5  -  Under

The Mavericks wanted Dwight Howard, they wanted Deron Williams, and they got nothing.  They lost Jason Terry and Jason Kidd.  Dirk Nowitzki is hurt and will miss the start of the season.  I just can't see this team being any good this year.  Too many changes and very few of them are positive and they have just too much to overcome.
Prediction:  41-41

Houston Rockets   30.5  -  Under

Like the Mavs, the Rockets tried to get Dwight Howard and failed.  So they went out and got Jeremy Lin and paid him so much that in essence they made him their franchise player.  I think Lin is good, but his sample size of games, although incredible, is just too small.  I simply don't believe the Rockets will be very good, although, I do love their draft pick Royce White.  I hope he has a great NBA career.
Prediction:   29-53

Memphis Grizzlies   48.5  -  Over

I think the Grizzlies last year had a team capable of making a long run into the playoffs, but they got knocked out in the first round by the Clippers.  They gave up a 27 point lead in one game.  They Lost O.J. Mayo to the Mavericks and besides that, pretty much stayed the same.  Their success this season will depend on the health of Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay.  If they're healthy, they'll be good.
Prediction:   50-32

New Orleans Hornets   25.5  -  Over

I have said many times before that I love Eric Gordon.  I think he is an All Star player waiting to happen.  He just needs the right team and the right opportunity.  I was hoping that team and opportunity came in Phoenix but he will be staying in New Orleans.  They made some good additions in the off season, but nothing bigger than their drafting of the Uni-brow, Anthony Davis.  Many people believe Davis alone will make this team a dark horse for the 8th spot in the west, but I think it is a season premature.
Prediction:   33-49

San Antonio Spurs   55.5  -  Over
They're the same team that had the best record in the West last season, just another year older.  Every year I think they are going to start to show their age, but they never do.  They'll again be contending for the top spot out West.
Prediction: 58-24

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets   49.5  -  Over

Everyone involved in the Dwight Howard trade won big, except for the Magic.  The addition of Andre Iguodala should help them to defend Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durrant, Kobe Bryant, and the other high scorers out West.  I like Ty Lawson as their Point Guard and I think Andre Miller brings good veteran leadership as the backup.  Overall, I love their starting lineup.  I think JaVale McGee will be much better now that he isn't in Washington, Kenneth Faried is a monster on the boards and Danilo Gallinari is gonna score.  This is a good looking Nuggets team.
Prediction: 54-28

Minnesota Timberwolves   39.5  -  Under

With Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio starting the season on the injured reserve it would be very difficult for this team to get to 40 wins.  The T-Wolves have the talent for the first time in years, but the injuries will put them another year out of the playoffs.
Prediction:   32-50

Oklahoma City Thunder   60.5  -  Under

I just get the feeling that something bad will happen to the Thunder this season.  Their big 3 has yet to suffer a serious injury or any sort of set back.  It happens to every team at some point, I think this year the Thunder will have some adversity to overcome.  But they are still the best team in the West in the regular season.  A big question is if the Thunder will trade James Harden before the trade deadline.  If they do, such a trade could have a huge impact on the chemistry this team has built.   It's just a gut feeling, but the Thunder will have some obstacles to overcome this season.
Prediction: 59-23

Portland Trail Blazers   35.5  -  Over

My biggest concern for the Blazers is that they will turn into a two-man team with LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum.  I think they will challenge for the final playoff spot in the West, but there are 4 possible playoff teams in their division, and I think they are the fourth best.  I hear Damian Lillard looks great and if he has a good season, he could give the Blazers a big boost.  But if he has a typical rookie season, they don't have a good backup Point Guard to come in and lift them up.
Prediction: 37-45

Utah Jazz   42.5  -  Over
Anyone who knows me knows that I hate the Utah Jazz.  Having said that, I love what the Jazz have done to get back to the level they were at with Deron Williams.  The additions of Marvin Williams, Randy Foye, and Mo Williams make them sneaky good.  No team is going to have Utah circleed on their calendar as a game they need to prepare for, and for that reason, I see the Jazz pulling off some big wins this year.
Prediction:   48-34

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors   34.5  -  Under

My new home town team.  I like the addition of Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes could be an exciting Rookie, but I am not sold on Klay Thompson as a starting Shooting Guard and I worry about Steph Curry's injury problems.  I hope they are good and an exciting team to watch, but I am not going to get my hopes up too much.
Prediction:  32-50

Los Angeles Clippers   48.5  -  Under

On paper their starting lineup looks great and their bench looks great too.  But they made so many additions to the team this off season that I worry about their ability to mesh well together.  They added Lamar Odom, Ronny Turiaf, Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, and Jamal Crawford just to name a few.  There is bound to be a few of those big name players who will be left on the bench and will not get the playing time they think they deserve.  The team chemistry will be off and Vinny Del Negro is not a good enough coach to be able to fix it.
Prediction: 45-37

Los Angeles Lakers   59.5  -  Under

Nash, Kobe, Gasol, and Howard.  Should be a championship team.  I would not be shocked if at the end of the season it is a championship caliber team.  But they each have such a different style of play that it may take the team a few months to figure out an offensive system that works.  Kobe is going to want shots, but Nash runs his teams with the ball in his hands and works off the pick and roll.  That may mean Gasol and Howard get plenty of touches at the rim, but where does that leave Kobe?  There is too much talent on this team to not be successful, but it may take some time.  We also don't know yet how healed Dwight Howard truly is from his back surgery.
Prediction: 55-27

Phoenix Suns   34.5  -  Under

I have always said the worst possible team in the NBA is the team that is no good and also old.  That's what the Suns have been for the past two seasons.  Besides Steve Nash they have not been any good and they have been old with two members of the starting lineup nearing the age of medicare.  It was time for the Suns to part ways with Nash, in fact, I think it was one season too late.  The Suns put together a decent group of players this off season and should be competitive, but I still don't believe they'll be very good.  The group of players they assembled are all mostly second level players, the rejects from other teams.  It's a painful feeling knowing that my favorite team is no good, so I guess this will be a season of  little individual victories.  Like if they can at least split the season series with the Jazz, or if they can get a road victory over a title contending team, or if they have an awful season and finish in last place and win the lottery.  Any of those scenarios would make me happy.
Prediction:   31-51

Sacramento Kings   29.5  -  Under

The Kings have so much talent that they should be good, but they are not a real team.  To me they look like a group of players that have been thrown together because they are talented.  They are like the team that already has 4 Point Guards and uses a second round pick to draft another Point Guard.  They will be a team similar to Golden State over the past few seasons; a lot of fun to watch, but no defense and very little hope of winning.  And I think with the announcement of a new arena being build in downtown Seattle, the Kings may be playing one of their final seasons in Sacramento.
Prediction: 26-56

Playoff Predictions
(Winners in Bold)

Eastern Conference
1. Miami Heat
2. Boston Celtics
3. Philadelphia 76ers
4. Indiana Pacers
5. Atlanta Hawks
6. Brooklyn Nets
7. Chicago Bulls
8. New York Knicks

Round One
1. Miami Heat
8. New York Knicks

4. Indiana Pacers
5. Atlanta Hawks

2. Boston Celtics
7. Chicago Bulls

3. Philadelphia 76ers
6. Brooklyn Nets

Round Two
1. Miami Heat
5. Atlanta Hawks

2. Boston Celtics
3. Philadelphia 76ers

Conference Finals
1. Miami Heat
2. Boston Celtics

Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. Denver Nuggets
5. Memphis Grizzlies
6. Utah Jazz
7. Los Angeles Clippers
8. Dallas Mavericks

Round One
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
8. Dallas Mavericks

4. Denver Nuggets
5. Memphis Grizzlies

2. San Antonio Spurs
7. Los Angeles Clippers

3. Los Angeles Lakers
6. Utah Jazz

Round Two
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
4. Denver Nuggets

3. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Los Angeles Clippers

Conference Finals
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
3. Los Angeles Clippers


NBA FINALS
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat

CHAMPIONS:  MIAMI HEAT

2012 Postseason Preview

The other day at work, when I went to use the bathroom, I noticed something interesting. It was something that I had seen for years but had never taken time to stop and think about it. After all, not too many people have deep insights in a bathroom. For the men, I am sure you too have all seen what I am about to describe and many have even experienced it for yourselves. For you ladies, let me paint the picture of what a men’s bathroom looks like.

In a men’s bathroom there are usually at least two urinals and almost without fail, one of those two urinals is shorter than the other. So one is for taller people and one is for shorter people. If you are short, you pee at the short urinal, and if you are tall, you pee at the tall urinal. It is the same with most drinking fountains, there is almost always one that is higher up than the other. But one thing about men is that they are too prideful to ever use to lower of the two urinals. They may be shorter than 5’2” but in their minds, they are tall enough for the big boy’s urinal. I on the other hand and 6’2” and it can be quite annoying having to use the short man’s toilet. But for some reason, no matter how short you are, if both urinals are open, you will use the tall man’s urinal. I guess it is a matter of pride and for those 30 seconds of peeing, you fill as tall as LeBron or Jordan. Too often a man much shorter than me will walk into the bathroom and will take the taller of the two toilets, forcing me to bend my knees to ensure I get my pee where it belongs.

So when I saw what I saw the other day, I was shocked. A man, maybe about 5’6”, a man who society would consider “short” or “below average” actually walked straight to the shorter urinal and did so without hesitation. It was as if he said to himself and everyone else, “I accept who I am and I am going to pee where I feel most comfortable.” I waited until he was done with his bathroom duties and carried him out on my shoulders for being such a hero and a symbol of confidence. Actually, I instead got to thinking about sports. How many times do we see players or teams trying to be something they are not? They are peeing at the tall man’s toilet when in reality, they need to be peeing in a toilet more appropriate for their height. For example, Tim Tebow. I do not have anything against him, I think he is a good football player and a great person, but we are kidding ourselves if we think he can actually be a successful starting quarterback in the NFL. Maybe his true calling is to be a tight end or full back, but a quarterback? I think time will prove that he is just trying to pee at a urinal too tall for him. But I could be wrong.

But I am not going to write an entire article about why Tim Tebow will not succeed; instead, I’d like to focus on the positive. There have been two teams who most people thought belonged at the shorter urinal and instead proudly peed from the adult toilet. Yesterday, the final day of the baseball season, I decided it would be a good time to look back on various preseason predictions made by some of the brightest minds in baseball. Almost every baseball writer had both the Orioles and A’s in last place in the AL East and West respectively. I could not find a single writer who picked either of them to be in the playoffs. No one even mentioned them as a possible “surprise” or “dark horse” team. Nope, instead they were chosen to be in last or second to last by nearly every single writer. Everyone said in essence, “you’re too short to use the adult toilet and at no point will be tall enough.” As the season went on and those two teams started to become a part of the possible playoff picture, everyone said that it was only a matter of time before they hit a wall and fell back to reality. Sadly, that is what happened with the Pittsburgh Pirates. They too were in the playoff picture as recently as a month ago, but as the calendar turned to September, they could not buy a win and soon went into free fall from their playoff dreams.

So now that both Baltimore and Oakland have made the playoffs, will either of them keep the run going? It is possible that the Orioles first playoff trip in 15 years is over in one game and although they made the playoffs, they may not get a chance to play an entire series. But Oakland, who at one point was 13 games behind Texas and was 5 games back with 9 games to go, miraculously swept the Rangers to win the AL West. I think most people would still say that the Orioles will be out of the playoffs after one game and the A’s will lose in the first round to the Tigers. With so many strange things happening this season, predicting what will happen this postseason will not be easy but I’ll give it a shot.

WILD CARD GAMES

National League: Cardinals vs. Braves

It all comes down to one person, Kris Medlen. The Braves have won his last 13 starts and in the month of August he had an ERA of .050 and in September an ERA of 1.26. He has been the best pitcher in the National League since July and will be the reason the Braves beat the Cardinals at home.

American League: Orioles vs. Rangers

Texas has only won 3 of their last 10 games including losing their last 3. The Orioles are one of the biggest surprises of the season. Texas looked to be on the right path to their third straight World Series before running into the A’s. I would not be surprised if either of these teams were to win tomorrow. But the Rangers have Darvish pitching and are at home, which leads me to believe that they will make it to the divisional series and knock off the Cinderella Orioles before they have had a chance to play a full series. The O’s are back in the playoffs, but not for long.

DIVSIONAL SERIES

National League

Giants vs. Reds

I don’t know how much this has been talked about this year, but for whatever reason, the lower seed in the divisional series will play the first two games at home and the higher seed will play the final three at their home. What the? I have no idea who came up with this brilliant plan, but I think in this series it will hurt the Reds. AT&T is not an easy ballpark to play in and to have to go on the road against both Cain and Bumgarner, I think the Reds are in trouble. The Giants will win those first two games and put the Reds into an elimination situation. I think the Reds will get one win at home, but the Giants will finish them off in 4 games.

Braves vs. Nationals

No Strasburg, No Problem. That’s all that needs to be said. Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman will pitch well enough in Atlanta and having to use Kris Medlen in the Wild Card game will put the Braves at a disadvantage. The Nationals will be tested, but will knock off their divisional rivals.

American League

A’s vs. Tigers

Miguel Cabrera has won the first triple crown in 45 years and will likely win this season’s MVP. The combination of Cabrera, last season’s MVP and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and Prince Fielder who is having a great season himself, makes the Tigers an easy pick to move past the A’s. But just like I cannot explain how the A’s won their division, I cannot explain how they will beat Detroit, but I’ve got a feeling that they will.

Rangers vs. Yankees

What an exciting divisional series this will be. I would be shocked if it did not go 5 games. The Yanks have at times looked unbeatable and at other times, they’ve looked average. They gave up a 10 game lead in their division and were for the last few weeks of the season tied off and on with the Orioles for first. But wait, isn’t that almost exactly what happened to the Rangers. They gave up a 13 game lead to the A’s, but unlike the Yankees, they could not hold off them off and eventually lost their division. To me, this series is a tossup, so I will look at their most recent season series, which is not good logic, but who cares. The Yankees beat the Rangers in 3 of the 4 games they played, so to follow suit, I’ve got to pick the Yanks.

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
National League

Giants vs. Nationals

First time a baseball team from DC has been to the post season since 1933. It has been a special season for the Nationals. Both of these teams have had such great seasons because of the pitching staff. The Giants struggle to put runs on the board, and I think this will hurt them. The Nationals have solid hitting and should be able to score quickly, putting the Giants in a hole, which they will struggle to recover from. I saw these teams play this season in San Francisco, and maybe I chose a bad game to attend, but the Nationals won 14-2. One game cannot predict a payoff series, but still, Nats to the World Series.

American League

A’s vs. Yankees

Again, I have no rhyme or reason for my pick here, but again, I am picking the A’s. Call me an idiot because I probably am, but I just have to pick Oakland. The last two seasons the winner of the World Series came into the playoffs hotter than anyone else and I think the A’s are this seasons Giants or Cardinals. They’re on their way to a World Series. Someone better call Brad Pitt and see if he is available for another movie.

WORLD SERIES

A’s vs. Nationals

The A’s last won a World Series in 1989 and the Nationals have never been to the postseason as the Nationals. If these two teams make it to the World Series, it would be as unpredictable of a World Series as I can remember. Honestly, I would be shocked myself if this actually was the World Series, but stranger things have happened… or have they? Nothing comes to my mind right now. Maybe the Rockies vs. Red Sox in 2007 or the Rays vs. Phillies in 2008, but I think this would top either of those. Although it would be quite the story to have the A’s bring a title back to Oakland, I just do see it happening. The Nationals will win the 2012 World Series. But I still think the A’s have earned their spot at the tall urinal.