Welcome to Atlanta Where the Players Play

After two weeks of basketball, we have arrived at the Final Four.  This has been quite an interesting tournament.  It has had some really exciting moments, but to be completely honest, it has been, for the most part, a sub-par tournament.  The quality of play has been some of the worst I can remember in any tournament during my entire life.  I am not going to get into the details of why I believe the quality of college basketball has declined recently, suffice it to say, play has gotten so sloppy that during the Syracuse vs. Marquette Elite 8 game, I turned the TV on mute and chose to read a book (well, it was a book about college basketball), instead of watching an absolutely awful performance from Marquette.  The Golden Eagles scored a total of... wait for it.... 39 points.  They shot a whopping 21% from the field.  Blah.  I think there are many issues with college basketball that need to be addressed, shot clock, restricted zone, charge/block call, time outs, one-and-done players, etc, but that's not my job, I am here to make some Final Four predictions.  So that I what I will do.  Here are my predictions for Saturday's games.

Louisville vs. Wichita State

For those of you who are all upset that you did not have the foresight to predict Wichita State making the Final Four, I have only one thing to say to you, of the over 5 million brackets submitted on ESPN.com, only 0.2% of people predicted that Wichita State would be in the Final Four.  And lets be honest about it, 99% of those 0.2% of brackets who picked Wichita State are either current students, alumni, fans (I don't know if they have any fans that aren't either students or alumni), or 3 year old kids who picked them just because.  So don't feel bad that you did not pick Wichita State to make it to the Final Four, none of us did.

On the other hand, every person who I know picked Louisville to make it to the Final Four.  Almost 55% of the brackets on ESPN.com had Louisville playing in Atlanta.  So this really is a match-up of one team that everyone believed would be there and another team that no one could have predicted would make it this far.

So can the Shockers get what would be their most shocking victory of the tournament so far (I promise, no more Shocker's puns)? Of the many important elements to this game, I see there being one major key if the Shockers want to win.  Wichita State is a very talented team and does not have to play perfect to win this game, they just have to play almost perfect.  The built up a 20 point lead against Ohio State in the first 35 minutes of the game when the Buckeye's allowed them to bring the ball up court and played a half-court defense.  In those final 5 minutes of the game, Ohio State began to press and that big lead quickly evaporated to the point that I was sure Ohio State was about to win the game.  My biggest concern with Wichita State is whether or not they can handle the pressure of Louisville from the opening tip.  The Cardinals press after almost every made basket and although they do often back off after the ball is inbounded, they will not make it easy for Wichita State to get the ball into the front court, set up their offense, and take a good shot.  I think the Shockers will be forced into many late clock situations where they have to take whatever shot is available, good, bad, or awful.  I also think it is important for Wichita State not to fall behind early.  If they are forced to play catch-up the entire game, it will be near impossible for them to win.  If they are able to keep the game to single digits, they could have a period of 4 minutes in the second half where they go on a run and take the lead late.  But if they fall behind too much too early, I don't think they can orchestrate a run sufficient to take the lead and win the game.

I do think Wichita State has a shot, but unless the injury to Kevin Ware hurts Louisville more than it motivates them, I don't think the Shockers will shock anyone Saturday night (Sorry, I had to use the pun one final time).

Syracuse vs. Michigan

There is one key and one key only to this game (well, there is more than one key, but this is pretty much the only one that matters).  Can Michigan figure out how to be successful against Syracuse's zone defense?  That's it, if Michigan can figure out the zone, they will win.  They are more talented on offense than Syracuse is, so if the zone isn't working and Michigan can score, Syracuse will not have the offense to keep up with the Wolverines.  Because Syracuse has been so successful on defense during the tournament, it is easy to forget that there have been several teams this year who have solved and had success with the Syracuse zone.  If Michigan is able to get a good idea from watching tape of where the weaknesses are in the zone, then they have a change at winning.  One of the best tapes for Michigan to watch would be the Big East Championship game between Syracuse and Louisville.  In the first half of that game, Syracuse held Louisville to only 22 points and had a 13 point lead at the break.  But the second 20 minutes was a complete different story as Louisville outscored Syracuse by 30 points.  If Michigan can figure out what Louisville did differently from the first to the second half, maybe they have hope of solving the unsolvable zone.

 One of the big issues for Syracuse in their loss to Louisville was their turnovers.  The Orange had 19 turnovers which led to fast break opportunities for the Cardinals and did not allow Syracuse to set their zone on defense.  Michigan will want to run and score fast, while Syracuse will want to play a half-court game allowing their zone to annoy and frustrate Michigan.  Whoever controls the tempo of the game will win.  If Michigan is able to score 60 to 70 points, that will be a sign that they are playing their tempo and their style of basketball and I can almost guarantee a victory for the Maize and Blue.  But if the score is in the 40's, Syracuse will be playing their style of game and has a better shot at beating Michigan.  So that I don't end up reading a book, lets hope, for the sanity of each one of us, that Michigan is able to score and at least make this game exciting and worth watching.  But like Jim Boeheim always does in the semi-final game (3-0 in his previous trips to the Final Four), I think Syracuse will win setting up a rematch of the Big East title game.  Having said that and having gone on record as picking Syracuse in this game, if Trey Burke is able to be the magic man that he was against Kansas, Michigan can and should win.  But something is telling me that the Syracuse zone will not allow the Wooden Player of the Year to get into a groove and do what he has done so many times this year, score and distribute to shooters.

MLB Preview and The Soda that Almost Killed Me

A few weeks ago I was longboarding over to a friend’s house to watch some basketball with him. Before I went to his place I stopped off at a Chevron to go inside and get a soda. This Chevron is located just a block from my home and was on the way to the friend’s house I was headed towards. I frequented this convenience store not only because it was close, but it was one of only two places in our town that I had found that sells Diet Mountain Dew (my soda of preference and what I like to believe water will taste like in Heaven) on tap. The other place that sells it, Circle K, is about a mile from where I live. Since I went to this Chevron frequently, I knew exactly how much it cost for me to fill up my cup with soda and therefore would always bring the correct amount of change with me. To get a refill on 32 ounces of soda was $0.99 and after tax was just over $1.00. I absolutely hate pennies (I usually throw them away if I get them back with my change) so I would always pay the person working at the counter a $1.10 and let them keep the pennies. This was my routine until I was no longer welcomed to return to this Chevron.

On this particular day when I went to refill my soda, I went through the same routine and with a cup full of Diet Mountain Dew I walked up to the cashier to pay for my drink. I handed him 4 quarters and a dime and started to leave. The following conversation then ensued between me and the cashier.

Cashier: It’s actually $1.39 for the soda.

Me: This is a refill, it’s only 99 cents.

Cashier: I know it’s a refill, but for that size it is $1.39.

Me: The sign right over there says that it is 99 cents for up to 32 ounce refill.

Cashier: I don’t care what it says over there, that’s not how much it is.

Me: I come in here all the time and always pay 99 cents for my soda.

Cashier: Well just give me the money you have but that is not the price.

Me: (Starting to leave) Ok whatever, but it says right over there that it is only 99 cents.

Cashier: Well next time you come here it will never cost you 99 cents again.

Me: Well I’m sure it will whenever anyone else besides you is working. (I then walked out the door and got on my longboard)

Cashier: (Running out the front door after me) What did you say mother fu****? You better never come back here again or I’ll get a gun.

Me: (Laughing) Haha, ok.

I then left and have only once returned to that Chevron (to take the picture) in fear of running into that same game and getting my brains shot out over a few cents. I thought it was the funniest thing and could not wait to tell my wife. She did not think it was so funny and wished that I had called the police. I did not take it quite as seriously as she did but in the aftermath of the confrontation with the man I now refer to as the Soda Jerk, I have had to go a mile out of my way each time I want a soda and well, that sucks.

So you are probably wondering what this has to do with my 2013 MLB season preview. Well let me explain... it has absolutely nothing to do with baseball or anything else in this entire article, I just wanted to tell that story. So now let’s start the baseball preview.





AL WEST

Angels (92 – 70)

Rangers (88 – 74)

A’s (86 - 76)

Mariners (76 – 86)

Astros (52 – 110)

After adding Josh Hamilton I think the Angels are the clear favorites to win this division and contend for the AL title. The Rangers lost Hamilton along with the three Mikes: Mike Napoli, Michael Young, and Mike Adams. The Angels will have Hamilton, Pujols and AL Rookie of the Year (and in many people’s eye’s, AL MVP), Mike Trout. The Rangers picked up a couple of veterans (Lance Berkman and A.J. Pierzynski) to replace all they lost but I don’t think they have quite enough to contend with the Angels. Like last season, I believe it will be a battle between these two teams for the AL West crown, but unlike last year, I don’t expect the A’s or any other team to sneak up and steal the title away.

AL CENTRAL

Tigers (94 – 68)

Indians (85 – 77)

White Sox (82 – 80)

Royals (74 – 88)

Twins (66 – 96)

After going to the World Series last year and getting swept in a series no one except Giant’s fans thought they would lose, the Tigers return possibly better than they were a season ago. The Tiger’s rotation will give them an advantage against nearly any team they face. The only big question I have is if the Tigers have resolved their bullpen issues that caused a million problems last season in the playoffs. The Tigers are in a very important window right now. They have enough talent to win a World Series and need to take advantage of it now while Verlander, Fielder and Cabrera are all in their prime. I think the Indians with new Manager Terry Francona will be the Tiger’s biggest competition, but down the stretch, I don’t expect any team to come close to contending with Detroit for the AL Central.

AL EAST

Rays (89 – 73)

Yankees (85 – 77)

Blue Jays (83 – 79)

Orioles (80 – 82)

Red Sox (79 – 83)

Just like everyone else, I think this will be the most interesting division to watch this year. There are a lot of unknowns. When will the Yankees be healthy? Will the Jays play up to their potential after making plenty of off season moves? Can the Orioles repeat their amazing run last season and contend for the AL East title once again? Are the Red Sox really as bad as they looked last year or was the main problem Bobby Valentine? The only team that I don’t really have any questions about is the Rays. They are consistent year after year and are one of the smartest teams in baseball.  Joe Madden knows how to get every ounce out of the roster he is given and with so many other questions in the division, I think this is the year the Rays will win the division, but I would not be surprised if each of the 5 teams are still in contention with a month remaining in the season.

NL WEST

Dodgers (90 – 72)

Diamondback (87 – 75)

Giants (84 – 78)

Padres (72 – 90)

Rockies (70 – 92)

The Giants are the defending World Champions and this year they are almost the exact same team as they were last year. The argument is that if it isn’t broke, why fix it? The Giants were not expected to win their division or even get out of the first round of the playoffs against the Reds. Somehow they did and eventually swept the Tigers for their second World Series in three years. My biggest question is if they can get the same production this season from their role players like they did last season. I fully expect Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Matt Cain to be as good as they were last season, but I don’t know if I would put all my chips in on Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, Brandon Belt and others to be as good this season as they were last year. The Dodgers went and opened their check book in the off season, essentially turning themselves into the Yankees of the west. Last season they made a couple of big deals towards the end of the season but did not have enough time to get the chemistry right between the players. With an entire off season together and with the one, two punch of Kershaw and Grenkie in the rotation, I think the Dodgers are the favorites out west. The Diamondbacks have a lot of talent, but with questions surrounding some of their young prospects, Adam Eaton and Matt Skaggs, I believe they will come up short of the title but will be in contention for a wild card.

NL CENTRAL

Reds (95 – 67)

Cardinals (85 – 77)

Pirates (81 – 81)

Brewers (76 – 86)

Cubs (64 – 98)

The Reds will not only be contending for the best record in the NL Central but for the best overall record in the National League. Last season the Reds ran into a couple of injuries in the middle of the season but could not be slowed down. If they are able to get an entire season out of Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, I don’t see any way they lose this division. The Cardinals are essentially identical to last season with only a few changes. But in my mind, those changes are almost all downgrades. I think the Cards will contend for the Wild Card but will be plenty of steps behind the Reds for first. The Pirates will be interesting again this season. I think Andrew McCutchen will contend for NL MVP and will continue to show that he is one of the best players in the game today. Once again, their biggest question is whether or not they can sustain their winning ways for an entire season and not just until the All Star break.

NL EAST

Nationals (97 – 65)

Braves (88 – 76)

Phillies (80 – 82)

Mets (69 – 93)

Marlins (59 – 103)

The Nationals are the best team in the Majors. I don’t think there is much debate about this right now. Stephen Strasberg will be pitching the entire season (unless his bionically repaired arm, or another part of his

body, suffers an injury) and Bryce Harper is another year older and hopefully a bit more mature. I am not a baseball scout or an expert on the sport, but looking at the National’s lineup and starting rotation, I don’t see any major areas of weakness. The Braves should once again be the Braves and just like the other Atlanta teams (Hawks and Falcons) they should be pretty good, good enough to get to the playoffs, but not quite good enough to win a World Series. It will be fun to watch the Upton brothers play together and Jason Heyward should continue to improve. It will also be interesting to watch a Braves game without Chipper Jones (who debuted when I was 5) but I don’t think his absence will be a big setback for Atlanta.

Well there you have it, my 2013 season predictions. But if this season is anything like last year with lots of surprises (A’s and Orioles just to name two), come the All Star break, I may have to go back and delete any evidence of these predictions.
And finally don’t forget today’s lesson, if someone charges you 30 cents extra for a soda, it is probably best to just pay the extra money, if you don’t, you are putting your life in danger and it may not be worth it. Although, truth be told, for Diet Mountain Dew, I will willingly put my life in danger whenever necessary (good thing my wife never reads my blog).