Welcome to Atlanta Where the Players Play

After two weeks of basketball, we have arrived at the Final Four.  This has been quite an interesting tournament.  It has had some really exciting moments, but to be completely honest, it has been, for the most part, a sub-par tournament.  The quality of play has been some of the worst I can remember in any tournament during my entire life.  I am not going to get into the details of why I believe the quality of college basketball has declined recently, suffice it to say, play has gotten so sloppy that during the Syracuse vs. Marquette Elite 8 game, I turned the TV on mute and chose to read a book (well, it was a book about college basketball), instead of watching an absolutely awful performance from Marquette.  The Golden Eagles scored a total of... wait for it.... 39 points.  They shot a whopping 21% from the field.  Blah.  I think there are many issues with college basketball that need to be addressed, shot clock, restricted zone, charge/block call, time outs, one-and-done players, etc, but that's not my job, I am here to make some Final Four predictions.  So that I what I will do.  Here are my predictions for Saturday's games.

Louisville vs. Wichita State

For those of you who are all upset that you did not have the foresight to predict Wichita State making the Final Four, I have only one thing to say to you, of the over 5 million brackets submitted on ESPN.com, only 0.2% of people predicted that Wichita State would be in the Final Four.  And lets be honest about it, 99% of those 0.2% of brackets who picked Wichita State are either current students, alumni, fans (I don't know if they have any fans that aren't either students or alumni), or 3 year old kids who picked them just because.  So don't feel bad that you did not pick Wichita State to make it to the Final Four, none of us did.

On the other hand, every person who I know picked Louisville to make it to the Final Four.  Almost 55% of the brackets on ESPN.com had Louisville playing in Atlanta.  So this really is a match-up of one team that everyone believed would be there and another team that no one could have predicted would make it this far.

So can the Shockers get what would be their most shocking victory of the tournament so far (I promise, no more Shocker's puns)? Of the many important elements to this game, I see there being one major key if the Shockers want to win.  Wichita State is a very talented team and does not have to play perfect to win this game, they just have to play almost perfect.  The built up a 20 point lead against Ohio State in the first 35 minutes of the game when the Buckeye's allowed them to bring the ball up court and played a half-court defense.  In those final 5 minutes of the game, Ohio State began to press and that big lead quickly evaporated to the point that I was sure Ohio State was about to win the game.  My biggest concern with Wichita State is whether or not they can handle the pressure of Louisville from the opening tip.  The Cardinals press after almost every made basket and although they do often back off after the ball is inbounded, they will not make it easy for Wichita State to get the ball into the front court, set up their offense, and take a good shot.  I think the Shockers will be forced into many late clock situations where they have to take whatever shot is available, good, bad, or awful.  I also think it is important for Wichita State not to fall behind early.  If they are forced to play catch-up the entire game, it will be near impossible for them to win.  If they are able to keep the game to single digits, they could have a period of 4 minutes in the second half where they go on a run and take the lead late.  But if they fall behind too much too early, I don't think they can orchestrate a run sufficient to take the lead and win the game.

I do think Wichita State has a shot, but unless the injury to Kevin Ware hurts Louisville more than it motivates them, I don't think the Shockers will shock anyone Saturday night (Sorry, I had to use the pun one final time).

Syracuse vs. Michigan

There is one key and one key only to this game (well, there is more than one key, but this is pretty much the only one that matters).  Can Michigan figure out how to be successful against Syracuse's zone defense?  That's it, if Michigan can figure out the zone, they will win.  They are more talented on offense than Syracuse is, so if the zone isn't working and Michigan can score, Syracuse will not have the offense to keep up with the Wolverines.  Because Syracuse has been so successful on defense during the tournament, it is easy to forget that there have been several teams this year who have solved and had success with the Syracuse zone.  If Michigan is able to get a good idea from watching tape of where the weaknesses are in the zone, then they have a change at winning.  One of the best tapes for Michigan to watch would be the Big East Championship game between Syracuse and Louisville.  In the first half of that game, Syracuse held Louisville to only 22 points and had a 13 point lead at the break.  But the second 20 minutes was a complete different story as Louisville outscored Syracuse by 30 points.  If Michigan can figure out what Louisville did differently from the first to the second half, maybe they have hope of solving the unsolvable zone.

 One of the big issues for Syracuse in their loss to Louisville was their turnovers.  The Orange had 19 turnovers which led to fast break opportunities for the Cardinals and did not allow Syracuse to set their zone on defense.  Michigan will want to run and score fast, while Syracuse will want to play a half-court game allowing their zone to annoy and frustrate Michigan.  Whoever controls the tempo of the game will win.  If Michigan is able to score 60 to 70 points, that will be a sign that they are playing their tempo and their style of basketball and I can almost guarantee a victory for the Maize and Blue.  But if the score is in the 40's, Syracuse will be playing their style of game and has a better shot at beating Michigan.  So that I don't end up reading a book, lets hope, for the sanity of each one of us, that Michigan is able to score and at least make this game exciting and worth watching.  But like Jim Boeheim always does in the semi-final game (3-0 in his previous trips to the Final Four), I think Syracuse will win setting up a rematch of the Big East title game.  Having said that and having gone on record as picking Syracuse in this game, if Trey Burke is able to be the magic man that he was against Kansas, Michigan can and should win.  But something is telling me that the Syracuse zone will not allow the Wooden Player of the Year to get into a groove and do what he has done so many times this year, score and distribute to shooters.