The Tiers of the Champions League

It's time for the UEFA Champions league (UCL).  This means two things.  Time to watch some of the best soccer in the world and time to watch teams that you may have never heard of before.  For us Americans unless you are a crazy insane diehard or an imegrant from one of these smaller Euorpean countries, each year there is a team or two that you will be watching play for the first time ever.  Many of these teams have already had to win a few matches just to qualify for group play.  But now we have 32 teams.  And instead of ranking each of team, I've put them in tiers to help you know a little bit more about each of the teams.  Let the tour of Eurpean Soccer begin:

The "Only hope is for one single point" group

Maribor – The Purples from Slovenia won their league last season but clearly look like the cellar dwellers from group G.  They have won the Slovenian league a total of 12 times, but like many others, they are just excited to be here.

BATE – The winners of the Belorussian Premier League.  Interesting note, BATE is an acronym for Borisov Works of Automobile and Tractor Equipment.   They are not a stranger to the UCL and are not in a very difficult group.  They won’t be an easy win for the other teams in their group.

APOEL – Not much love for this team from Cyprus.  They are matched with Barca, PSG and AJAX and will likely not be favored in any match.

Basel – There group has two clear front-runners (Real Madrid and Liverpool).  They will be in a fight with Lodogorets for the Europa spot.

Malmo – They are the most popular team in Sweeden and where Zlatan Ibrahimovic began his career.   But they are clearly the 4^th place team in their group.

Ludogorets – By far the feel good story of the tournament.  If you haven’t seen the story of how this Bulgarian team qualified for group play, then watch this video right now.  In my mind, they’re already champions.

The "Might make some noise" group

Shaktar Donetsk – Winners of the Ukrainian Premier League.   Also find themselves in a group where any two teams could advance.  Might surprise some people.

Olympiacos – They drew a tough group with Juventus and Atletico Madrid.  They are known for having a serious home field advantage and may surprise a team or two at home in Greece.

Sporting Lisbon – The runners up in Portugal will hope to be runners up in their group and hope to upset either Chelsea or Shalke.

Galatasaray – I don’t know much about Turkish Football, but one thing I do know is that no one likes to play in Turkey.  They shocked everyone last season advancing out of the group stage over Juventus and have a decent chance of getting to the knockout stage again.

Anderletcht – The Champions of the Belgium league are in a group with one clear favorite and 3 others contending for second.  It’s between them, Galatasaray and Arsenal.  I’d put my money on Arsenal, but wouldn't be shocked if either of the other two make it out of the group instead,

CSKA Moscow – If I have to pick one group to call the group of death, then I would pick group E.  Going up against Bayern Munich, Man City, and Roma, CSKA look to be the clear choice for 4^th place.  But don’t count them out so easily.  They have won the Russian Premier League 2 years running and may be able to steal points away from Roma and City at home.

The "Happy to get out of the group stage" group

Monaco – I would have felt much better about Monaco before they sold James Rodriguez and Radamel Falcao.  But they are in a group where they not only are fighting for second, buy may actually have a shot to win.

Porto – The Portuguese team find themselves in a very, may I say “easy” group.  For a team that finished third in Portugal, they are in a group up against no world powerhouse.   

Bayer Leverkusen – They are also in a group where I could put all 4 teams in a hat, pick 2 and those teams could be the ones to advance.  All four of the teams in their group make it into this tier, they’ll be happy to get out of the group, but I don’t see them making much noise once their out.

Athletic Bilbao – I have a soft spot in my heart for Athletic Bilbao.  In a world where money has taken over the football, Athletic Bilbao has a policy to only recruit local players.  I hear stories about the days when all players for a certain club were actually from that city and many worked blue collar jobs in the city to help them survive.  Not only does this make Bilbao unique, but the fact that they are competitive makes them even more fun to cheer for. 

Benfica – Exactly what I already said about Bayer Leverkusen.  It’s anyone’s ball game.

Ajax – This very talented Dutch team got very unlucky with their draw.  They have to go against Barca and PSG.  Clearly they appear to be the third place team in the group, but I wouldn't count them out quite that easily.

Zenit St Petersberg – Similar to how Manchester City and PSG have got lots of money recently, Zenit is following the same path.  They finished second in the Russian league last season, but thanks to the influx of money, they have a handful of players many fans will recognize, but they are still several players away from truly contending.

The "Not quite title contenders" group

Schalke 04 – In the Bundesliga there are two top teams right now and then a big gap and then Schakle 04 who comes in third.  But in their group, they appear to be the second best team and if you are a believer that German Football is the best in the world, then you may argue that they are the best team in their group.

Paris St Germain – Money money money… MONEY!  They've won the French League title two years running but have yet to duplicate that success in Europe.  But they keep spending (David Luis? $64 million?) and well this may be the year it pays off.  They will get out of their group, but once they do, it all depends on their draws to see how far they go.

Manchester City – I feel like I just got done talking about money.  Well here I go again.  Full disclosure, in case you didn't already know, City is my favorite team in the world.  Yet I can be completely unbiased about this pick.  They have to play Bayern Munich.  They are still not quite as good as Munich.  So at best they can hope for second in their group.  But wait, then there is Roma.  They ain’t no walk in the park.  Oh, and they have to travel to Russian to play the Russian champs.  I do think they will finish second in their extremely difficult group, but second only means they then will be paired against a group winner, which could mean a repeat of last season.  Maybe one year they will catch a break in their group.

Arsenal – Clearly a very talented team, but they too will be hoping for a second place finish in their group.  But after 17 straight seasons in the UCL, will this finally be the year they win it all?  Nope. It won’t be.  Sorry, better hope lucky number 18 treats you better.

Roma – Remember what I said about Man City? Well, that’s pretty much exactly what I have to say about Roma.  I think they will finish in third, but I it may come down to goal difference.  So the question is, can they lose by fewer goals against Bayern Munich than City?

Liverpool – The only reason Liverpool makes this tier is because they should clearly make it out of their group.  They do have to face Real Madrid, but they should win all other matches.  After a long absence from the UCL, they are back but I don’t think they are ready to make a long run quite yet.  But the sale of Luis Suarez may in the end help them as they were able to purchase a lot of depth for a season in Europe.

Atletico Madrid – Last season’s runners-up and Spanish champs.  They came within just a few minutes of winning the title.  Can they repeat the feat this season as well?  I don’t think they can, but with Diego Simione as their manager, I don’t ever count them out.
Juventus – I am a sucker for Carlos Tevez.  He has been one of my favorite players since the time I first saw him play.  Then there is Arturo Vidal, who I would never wanna run into in a dark alley.  I love the way Vidal plays as well.  And you can’t forget about old man Gigi Bufon. Juventus is going to be a fun team to watch and may even make a semi-final if the draws are kind to them.

The "May just win it all" group

Bayern Munich – They have made it to the final is 2 of the past 3 seasons and won it all 2 years ago.  They have to be my favorites to win it all this year.  Many of their stars know what its like to win big tournaments after winning the World Cup this summer and should have extreme confidence for their club team as well.  Munich was great last season and only got better this year.  All they are missing to be perfect is Julian Green, I mean the kid scores in every big match he has ever played in, too bad they sent him out on loan… their lose.

Real Madrid – So if Bayern Munich is my title favorite, I have to put them as 1a and Real Madrid as 1b.  There is not a big gap between these two teams.  Yes I know Madrid embarrassed them in the semi-finals last season, and yes I know that Real added some great players in the off season, but I honestly think losing a play maker like Angel di Maria will hurt them.  And will Cristiano Ronaldo be sold in the January transfer window?  I doubt it, but I simply think Real Madrid will come up a little short of repeating the title this season.

Barcelona – It was only 2 years ago we were talking about Barcelona being the greatest team of all time.  Last season, even though they came within one match of winning the La Liga title, they simply didn't look as dominate as before.  But can you imagine playing defense against Messi, Neymar and now Luis Suarez?  I would stand still and pee my pants if I saw that coming at me.  It will be interesting to see how they all play together once Suarez’s suspension is over.

Chelsea – So far, Chelsea is clearly the best team in England.  Diego Costa is scoring at an unbelievable rate and Cesc Fabregas is distributing the ball like a chef at IHOP distributes pancakes.  They have made it look easy so far.  Both Costa and Fabregas know what it takes to have success in Europe and could take Chelsea back to the top where they were just 3 years ago.

Borussia Dortmund – For casual or new soccer fans, you may not be aware of Borussia Dortmund.  They are the number two team in Germany and they are a lot of fun to watch.   Year after year they keep selling their best players to Bayern Munich and year after year they are still competitive.  Their bright yellow and black kits pop out on the screen and they look like a pack of bees speeding past defenses.  Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is one of the most fun players to watch and Macros Reus is quite entertaining himself.  I don’t think Dortmund will win the title this year, but if they are playing, I’m watching.

NFL Season Preview

I am far from an NFL expert but I thought it would be fun to make some predictions before the start of this upcoming season.  After a handful of seasons where a team got hot at the right time and carried that success all the way to a Super Bowl, it would be hard to find someone to argue that the best team didn't win the Super Bowl last season (and I'm sure all those people who will argue for that live in the Bay Area).  Seattle looked to be a step ahead of all other teams last season, or in the case of the Niners, not so much a step a head as a  finger tip ahead.  Many people, for the first time in several years, think the Seahawks have what it takes to win it all again and start the makings of a dynasty.  I would not be shocked if the Hawks are champs once again, but they lost some key players in the off season in order to pay their young stars.  They will be good, but the question is, did other teams get better while the Hawks remained the same?
Here's how I see it playing out this year:

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: 3-13 – Worst team in the league and their #1 overall pick will be heading to Cleveland.  The best part about their defense, Mike Pettine left for Cleveland, the same place their pick is heading.

Miami Dolphins: 8-8 –This is the season Ryan Tannehill takes a big step forward and achieves the coveted “league average quarterback” status.

New England Patriots: 12-4 – Similar to the San Antonio Spurs, I believe the Pats, led by a much improved defense, has one final title run left in them.

New York Jets: 6-10 – Average defense, awful offense.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: 9-7 – The Ravens offense will not be as bad this season as they were last season, but the defense is getting old and doesn’t intimidate opposing offenses like they used to.

Cincinnati Bengals: 10-6 – The Bengals overcome the shock of the Andy Dalton contract and win the division.

Cleveland Browns: 4-12 – Similar to last year, the Browns will keep a lot of games close but without a competent QB and big play threat on offense, they will consistently fall short.  But no worries, they should have two top 5 picks in next year’s draft – thanks Buffalo.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8 – It all comes down to the offensive line and if they can protect Big Ben from injury.  The Steelers better be careful or Tomlin may be shown the door before the season is up.

AFC South

Houston Texans: 8-8 – Much better than last season, but they still lack a winning QB and history doesn’t convince me that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the right guy to lead a team to the playoffs, but I still expect a resurgent season.

Indianapolis Colts: 9-7 – The default winners in the worst conference in the NFL.  The Colts have Andrew Luck and that’s about all.  If anything happens to Luck, this team is looking at another 2 win season.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10 – The Jags should be more competitive this year and likely won’t be getting 10 points from Vegas each week.  Bortles looks like the real deal and the additions of a couple of Super Bowl winners from Seattle should make this team better, but the Jags are very thin and any major injury could ruin their entire season.

Tennessee Titans: 7-9 – I like the combination of Ken Whisenhunt and a healthy Jake Locker.  But they are trying out a new defense which could take a handful of games to figure out.  They may win some close games and upset a few teams, but they fall short again of the playoffs.

AFC West

Denver Broncos: 13-3 – Assuming Manning can stay healthy; there is no reason to believe the Broncos can’t repeat the offensive outputs from last season.  The defense is healthy and deeper.  I see a very similar team to last season, but better built to contend if injuries occur.

Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9 – Clearly the candidate to be one of this season regression teams.  Last season’s schedule was much easier.  I think a weak offensive line will lead to a banged up Jamal Charles and the defense lost a lot more this off season than they gained.  They may still be feeling the hangover from one of the worst playoff beats I’ve seen in my lifetime.

Oakland Raiders: 4-12 – Over/Under number of games before Dennis Allen gets fired? I’m setting that line 6 games.  The Raiders could very easily go 0-6 to start the season and possible 1-9 in their first 10.  Their schedule looks rough and a rookie QB doesn’t help convince me they will improve on last season’s 4-12 record.

San Diego Chargers: 10-6 – Can the Chargers offense duplicate their success from last season?  I think they can and I also think their defense will be better.  If it wasn’t for Peyton Manning, I may be tempted to bet on Phillip Rivers to win the MVP.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: 6-10 – Possibly the worst defense in the NFL.  The offense may be able to do enough to help them defeat lesser opponents, but the defense is so bad, I can’t see them finishing above .500.

New York Giants: 7-9 – I honestly don’t know what to think about the Giants.  I think Eli could throw more picks than TDs.  Not likely, but I wouldn’t put it past him.  Everything about the Giants looks very middle-of-the-road. 

Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5 – Similar to the Colts, the Eagles will win the division by default.  I am excited to see what the Eagles look like in the second season of the Chip Kelly mega offense.  I am all-in on Nick Foles.  Many say that he was simply the beneficiary of the Kelly offense.  Well, duh, any QB in this offense would have inflated stats.  But still, I think Foles is not only an above average QB, I think he is in MVP talks 2 to 3 years from now.  I bought a lot of Nick Foles stock while he was in college and I can’t wait to cash it in and become a rich man.

Washington Redskins / Pigskins / Warriors / Whatever they will be called next season: 5-11 – Similar to how I am all in on Nick Foles, I am pretty close to being all out on RG3.  I know the preseason doesn’t mean anything, but all you have to do is look at him and it’s clear to see that Griffin still looks uncomfortable.  He has some impressive weapons, but the offense will rely on him too much and the team will be too stubborn to bench him for Cousins.

NFC North

Chicago Bears: 9-7 – Should be a very exciting offense with a below average defense.  If you don’t have at least one Bears player on your fantasy team, you will be missing out on some good fantasy points.

Detriot Lions: 7-9 – For a team that has Ndamukong Suh this defense is quite awful.  Stafford and Megatron should be fun as always to watch and Stafford will come close again to passing for 5,000 yards.  But in doing so, he will likely pass the ball to a player on the other team around 20 times.

Green Bay Packers: 12-4 – A healthy Aaron Rodgers should lead the Packers to another great season.  I don’t have a lot of faith in the defense, but the offense should be good enough to overcome that defense.  If for some reason it’s not the Broncos, I’d expect the Packers to finish with the top offense in the league.

Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 – I think Bridgewater will become a very good NFL QB.  He isn’t gonna get their quite yet in his first season, but if he is given the chance to play, he will make the Browns look stupid for picking Johnny Football over him when both QBs were still available.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 – The Falcons were not as bad last season as their record would indicate.  A slew of injuries kept them from reaching their potential.  They will recover some this season, but may still fall short of the playoffs, but I think they sneak in thanks to some tie-breakers.

Carolina Panthers: 5-10 - Compared to last season’s Panthers team, the version they send out this season will look much more like your average house cat than a Panther.

New Orleans Saints: 11-5 – Drew Brees on offense and a Rob Ryan led defense.  I’m in.  If the Saints can figure out a way to get the top seed in the NFC, they would have a similar walk to the Super Bowl as the Seahawks did last season thanks to their incredible home field advantage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8 – I think Lovie Smith was the best head coaching hire of the off season.  The Bucs were not as awful as their record indicated last year.  They are one year away from being a legitimate contender in this division.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals: 10-6 – Their defense will take a step back this season due to injury but I am much more bullish on their offense than your average person.  No Carson Palmer is not an MVP candidate, but I think he is smart enough to make the right reads and distribute the ball accordingly.  My biggest concern is if he can stay on his feet facing the rest of the NFC West defenses.

St. Louis Rams: 6-10 – Potentially the best defensive front 7 in the NFL.  The secondary will be average and the offense will be below average.  I don’t think they would have been much better with Sam Bradford and his season-ending injury maybe only sways my prediction by one game.  Take a look at your Fantasy league; does anyone have a single St. Louis Ram offensive player on their team? (Unless you were on auto-draft and picked Bradford).

San Francisco 49ers: 8-8 – Pretty much everything that could have gone wrong for the Niners has this off season.  Suspensions and injuries have turned this champion contender into a middle of the pack team.  Not to mention a coach that never denied trying to leave for Cleveland.   I see the Niners starting off the season slow before figuring it out around week 8 and fighting for a wild card spot, but coming up just short.

Seattle Seahawks: 12-4 – Not much to say about the Hawks.  They will be good again.  The biggest difference I see from last season to this season is a much improved offense.  I know it’s only preseason, but at one point, over a two game stretch, Russell Wilson led his offense down the field to score on 9 consecutive possessions.  Not only did they score, he made it look so simple and absolutely picked apart the opposing defenses.  I think Wilson takes another big step forward this season, but the Madden curse may hit the Seahawks defense who I believe will make a slight decline this season.

AFC Playoffs:

Wildcard Round

#3 Cincinnati vs. #6 Baltimore – Winner: Bengals

#4 Indianapolis vs. #5 San Diego – Winner: Chargers

Divisional Round

#1 Denver vs. #5 San Diego – Winner: Broncos

#2 New England vs. #3 Cincinnati – Winner: Patriots

AFC Championship

#1 Denver vs. #2 New England – Winner: Patriots

NFC Playoffs

Wildcard Round

#3 New Orleans vs. #6 Atlanta – Winner: Saints

#4 Philadelphia vs. #5 Arizona – Winner: Eagles

Divisional Round

#1 Seattle vs. #4 Philadelphia – Winner: Eagles

#2 Green Bay vs. #3 New Orleans – Winner: Saints

NFC Championship

#3 New Orleans vs. #4 Philadelphia – Winner: Saints

Super Bowl

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots – Winner: Saints