Wednesday, September 17, 2014

The Tiers of the Champions League

It's time for the UEFA Champions league (UCL).  This means two things.  Time to watch some of the best soccer in the world and time to watch teams that you may have never heard of before.  For us Americans unless you are a crazy insane diehard or an imegrant from one of these smaller Euorpean countries, each year there is a team or two that you will be watching play for the first time ever.  Many of these teams have already had to win a few matches just to qualify for group play.  But now we have 32 teams.  And instead of ranking each of team, I've put them in tiers to help you know a little bit more about each of the teams.  Let the tour of Eurpean Soccer begin:

The "Only hope is for one single point" group

Maribor – The Purples from Slovenia won their league last season but clearly look like the cellar dwellers from group G.  They have won the Slovenian league a total of 12 times, but like many others, they are just excited to be here.
BATE – The winners of the Belorussian Premier League.  Interesting note, BATE is an acronym for Borisov Works of Automobile and Tractor Equipment.   They are not a stranger to the UCL and are not in a very difficult group.  They won’t be an easy win for the other teams in their group.
APOEL – Not much love for this team from Cyprus.  They are matched with Barca, PSG and AJAX and will likely not be favored in any match.
Basel – There group has two clear front-runners (Real Madrid and Liverpool).  They will be in a fight with Lodogorets for the Europa spot.
Malmo – They are the most popular team in Sweeden and where Zlatan Ibrahimovic began his career.   But they are clearly the 4th place team in their group.
Ludogorets – By far the feel good story of the tournament.  If you haven’t seen the story of how this Bulgarian team qualified for group play, then watch this video right now.  In my mind, they’re already champions.


The "Might make some noise" group

Shaktar Donetsk – Winners of the Ukrainian Premier League.   Also find themselves in a group where any two teams could advance.  Might surprise some people.
Olympiacos – They drew a tough group with Juventus and Atletico Madrid.  They are known for having a serious home field advantage and may surprise a team or two at home in Greece.
Sporting Lisbon – The runners up in Portugal will hope to be runners up in their group and hope to upset either Chelsea or Shalke.
Galatasaray – I don’t know much about Turkish Football, but one thing I do know is that no one likes to play in Turkey.  They shocked everyone last season advancing out of the group stage over Juventus and have a decent chance of getting to the knockout stage again.
Anderletcht – The Champions of the Belgium league are in a group with one clear favorite and 3 others contending for second.  It’s between them, Galatasaray and Arsenal.  I’d put my money on Arsenal, but wouldn't be shocked if either of the other two make it out of the group instead,
CSKA Moscow – If I have to pick one group to call the group of death, then I would pick group E.  Going up against Bayern Munich, Man City, and Roma, CSKA look to be the clear choice for 4th place.  But don’t count them out so easily.  They have won the Russian Premier League 2 years running and may be able to steal points away from Roma and City at home.


The "Happy to get out of the group stage" group

Monaco – I would have felt much better about Monaco before they sold James Rodriguez and Radamel Falcao.  But they are in a group where they not only are fighting for second, buy may actually have a shot to win.
Porto – The Portuguese team find themselves in a very, may I say “easy” group.  For a team that finished third in Portugal, they are in a group up against no world powerhouse.   
Bayer Leverkusen – They are also in a group where I could put all 4 teams in a hat, pick 2 and those teams could be the ones to advance.  All four of the teams in their group make it into this tier, they’ll be happy to get out of the group, but I don’t see them making much noise once their out.
Athletic Bilbao – I have a soft spot in my heart for Athletic Bilbao.  In a world where money has taken over the football, Athletic Bilbao has a policy to only recruit local players.  I hear stories about the days when all players for a certain club were actually from that city and many worked blue collar jobs in the city to help them survive.  Not only does this make Bilbao unique, but the fact that they are competitive makes them even more fun to cheer for. 
Benfica – Exactly what I already said about Bayer Leverkusen.  It’s anyone’s ball game.
Ajax – This very talented Dutch team got very unlucky with their draw.  They have to go against Barca and PSG.  Clearly they appear to be the third place team in the group, but I wouldn't count them out quite that easily.
Zenit St Petersberg – Similar to how Manchester City and PSG have got lots of money recently, Zenit is following the same path.  They finished second in the Russian league last season, but thanks to the influx of money, they have a handful of players many fans will recognize, but they are still several players away from truly contending.


The "Not quite title contenders" group

Schalke 04 – In the Bundesliga there are two top teams right now and then a big gap and then Schakle 04 who comes in third.  But in their group, they appear to be the second best team and if you are a believer that German Football is the best in the world, then you may argue that they are the best team in their group.
Paris St Germain – Money money money… MONEY!  They've won the French League title two years running but have yet to duplicate that success in Europe.  But they keep spending (David Luis? $64 million?) and well this may be the year it pays off.  They will get out of their group, but once they do, it all depends on their draws to see how far they go.
Manchester City – I feel like I just got done talking about money.  Well here I go again.  Full disclosure, in case you didn't already know, City is my favorite team in the world.  Yet I can be completely unbiased about this pick.  They have to play Bayern Munich.  They are still not quite as good as Munich.  So at best they can hope for second in their group.  But wait, then there is Roma.  They ain’t no walk in the park.  Oh, and they have to travel to Russian to play the Russian champs.  I do think they will finish second in their extremely difficult group, but second only means they then will be paired against a group winner, which could mean a repeat of last season.  Maybe one year they will catch a break in their group.

Arsenal – Clearly a very talented team, but they too will be hoping for a second place finish in their group.  But after 17 straight seasons in the UCL, will this finally be the year they win it all?  Nope. It won’t be.  Sorry, better hope lucky number 18 treats you better.
Roma – Remember what I said about Man City? Well, that’s pretty much exactly what I have to say about Roma.  I think they will finish in third, but I it may come down to goal difference.  So the question is, can they lose by fewer goals against Bayern Munich than City?
Liverpool – The only reason Liverpool makes this tier is because they should clearly make it out of their group.  They do have to face Real Madrid, but they should win all other matches.  After a long absence from the UCL, they are back but I don’t think they are ready to make a long run quite yet.  But the sale of Luis Suarez may in the end help them as they were able to purchase a lot of depth for a season in Europe.
Atletico Madrid – Last season’s runners-up and Spanish champs.  They came within just a few minutes of winning the title.  Can they repeat the feat this season as well?  I don’t think they can, but with Diego Simione as their manager, I don’t ever count them out.
Juventus – I am a sucker for Carlos Tevez.  He has been one of my favorite players since the time I first saw him play.  Then there is Arturo Vidal, who I would never wanna run into in a dark alley.  I love the way Vidal plays as well.  And you can’t forget about old man Gigi Bufon. Juventus is going to be a fun team to watch and may even make a semi-final if the draws are kind to them.


The "May just win it all" group

Bayern Munich – They have made it to the final is 2 of the past 3 seasons and won it all 2 years ago.  They have to be my favorites to win it all this year.  Many of their stars know what its like to win big tournaments after winning the World Cup this summer and should have extreme confidence for their club team as well.  Munich was great last season and only got better this year.  All they are missing to be perfect is Julian Green, I mean the kid scores in every big match he has ever played in, too bad they sent him out on loan… their lose.
Real Madrid – So if Bayern Munich is my title favorite, I have to put them as 1a and Real Madrid as 1b.  There is not a big gap between these two teams.  Yes I know Madrid embarrassed them in the semi-finals last season, and yes I know that Real added some great players in the off season, but I honestly think losing a play maker like Angel di Maria will hurt them.  And will Cristiano Ronaldo be sold in the January transfer window?  I doubt it, but I simply think Real Madrid will come up a little short of repeating the title this season.
Barcelona – It was only 2 years ago we were talking about Barcelona being the greatest team of all time.  Last season, even though they came within one match of winning the La Liga title, they simply didn't look as dominate as before.  But can you imagine playing defense against Messi, Neymar and now Luis Suarez?  I would stand still and pee my pants if I saw that coming at me.  It will be interesting to see how they all play together once Suarez’s suspension is over.
Chelsea – So far, Chelsea is clearly the best team in England.  Diego Costa is scoring at an unbelievable rate and Cesc Fabregas is distributing the ball like a chef at IHOP distributes pancakes.  They have made it look easy so far.  Both Costa and Fabregas know what it takes to have success in Europe and could take Chelsea back to the top where they were just 3 years ago.
Borussia Dortmund – For casual or new soccer fans, you may not be aware of Borussia Dortmund.  They are the number two team in Germany and they are a lot of fun to watch.   Year after year they keep selling their best players to Bayern Munich and year after year they are still competitive.  Their bright yellow and black kits pop out on the screen and they look like a pack of bees speeding past defenses.  Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is one of the most fun players to watch and Macros Reus is quite entertaining himself.  I don’t think Dortmund will win the title this year, but if they are playing, I’m watching.






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