NFL Season Preview

I am far from an NFL expert but I thought it would be fun to make some predictions before the start of this upcoming season.  After a handful of seasons where a team got hot at the right time and carried that success all the way to a Super Bowl, it would be hard to find someone to argue that the best team didn't win the Super Bowl last season (and I'm sure all those people who will argue for that live in the Bay Area).  Seattle looked to be a step ahead of all other teams last season, or in the case of the Niners, not so much a step a head as a  finger tip ahead.  Many people, for the first time in several years, think the Seahawks have what it takes to win it all again and start the makings of a dynasty.  I would not be shocked if the Hawks are champs once again, but they lost some key players in the off season in order to pay their young stars.  They will be good, but the question is, did other teams get better while the Hawks remained the same?
Here's how I see it playing out this year:

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: 3-13 – Worst team in the league and their #1 overall pick will be heading to Cleveland.  The best part about their defense, Mike Pettine left for Cleveland, the same place their pick is heading.

Miami Dolphins: 8-8 –This is the season Ryan Tannehill takes a big step forward and achieves the coveted “league average quarterback” status.

New England Patriots: 12-4 – Similar to the San Antonio Spurs, I believe the Pats, led by a much improved defense, has one final title run left in them.

New York Jets: 6-10 – Average defense, awful offense.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: 9-7 – The Ravens offense will not be as bad this season as they were last season, but the defense is getting old and doesn’t intimidate opposing offenses like they used to.

Cincinnati Bengals: 10-6 – The Bengals overcome the shock of the Andy Dalton contract and win the division.

Cleveland Browns: 4-12 – Similar to last year, the Browns will keep a lot of games close but without a competent QB and big play threat on offense, they will consistently fall short.  But no worries, they should have two top 5 picks in next year’s draft – thanks Buffalo.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8 – It all comes down to the offensive line and if they can protect Big Ben from injury.  The Steelers better be careful or Tomlin may be shown the door before the season is up.

AFC South

Houston Texans: 8-8 – Much better than last season, but they still lack a winning QB and history doesn’t convince me that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the right guy to lead a team to the playoffs, but I still expect a resurgent season.

Indianapolis Colts: 9-7 – The default winners in the worst conference in the NFL.  The Colts have Andrew Luck and that’s about all.  If anything happens to Luck, this team is looking at another 2 win season.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10 – The Jags should be more competitive this year and likely won’t be getting 10 points from Vegas each week.  Bortles looks like the real deal and the additions of a couple of Super Bowl winners from Seattle should make this team better, but the Jags are very thin and any major injury could ruin their entire season.

Tennessee Titans: 7-9 – I like the combination of Ken Whisenhunt and a healthy Jake Locker.  But they are trying out a new defense which could take a handful of games to figure out.  They may win some close games and upset a few teams, but they fall short again of the playoffs.

AFC West

Denver Broncos: 13-3 – Assuming Manning can stay healthy; there is no reason to believe the Broncos can’t repeat the offensive outputs from last season.  The defense is healthy and deeper.  I see a very similar team to last season, but better built to contend if injuries occur.

Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9 – Clearly the candidate to be one of this season regression teams.  Last season’s schedule was much easier.  I think a weak offensive line will lead to a banged up Jamal Charles and the defense lost a lot more this off season than they gained.  They may still be feeling the hangover from one of the worst playoff beats I’ve seen in my lifetime.

Oakland Raiders: 4-12 – Over/Under number of games before Dennis Allen gets fired? I’m setting that line 6 games.  The Raiders could very easily go 0-6 to start the season and possible 1-9 in their first 10.  Their schedule looks rough and a rookie QB doesn’t help convince me they will improve on last season’s 4-12 record.

San Diego Chargers: 10-6 – Can the Chargers offense duplicate their success from last season?  I think they can and I also think their defense will be better.  If it wasn’t for Peyton Manning, I may be tempted to bet on Phillip Rivers to win the MVP.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: 6-10 – Possibly the worst defense in the NFL.  The offense may be able to do enough to help them defeat lesser opponents, but the defense is so bad, I can’t see them finishing above .500.

New York Giants: 7-9 – I honestly don’t know what to think about the Giants.  I think Eli could throw more picks than TDs.  Not likely, but I wouldn’t put it past him.  Everything about the Giants looks very middle-of-the-road. 

Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5 – Similar to the Colts, the Eagles will win the division by default.  I am excited to see what the Eagles look like in the second season of the Chip Kelly mega offense.  I am all-in on Nick Foles.  Many say that he was simply the beneficiary of the Kelly offense.  Well, duh, any QB in this offense would have inflated stats.  But still, I think Foles is not only an above average QB, I think he is in MVP talks 2 to 3 years from now.  I bought a lot of Nick Foles stock while he was in college and I can’t wait to cash it in and become a rich man.

Washington Redskins / Pigskins / Warriors / Whatever they will be called next season: 5-11 – Similar to how I am all in on Nick Foles, I am pretty close to being all out on RG3.  I know the preseason doesn’t mean anything, but all you have to do is look at him and it’s clear to see that Griffin still looks uncomfortable.  He has some impressive weapons, but the offense will rely on him too much and the team will be too stubborn to bench him for Cousins.

NFC North

Chicago Bears: 9-7 – Should be a very exciting offense with a below average defense.  If you don’t have at least one Bears player on your fantasy team, you will be missing out on some good fantasy points.

Detriot Lions: 7-9 – For a team that has Ndamukong Suh this defense is quite awful.  Stafford and Megatron should be fun as always to watch and Stafford will come close again to passing for 5,000 yards.  But in doing so, he will likely pass the ball to a player on the other team around 20 times.

Green Bay Packers: 12-4 – A healthy Aaron Rodgers should lead the Packers to another great season.  I don’t have a lot of faith in the defense, but the offense should be good enough to overcome that defense.  If for some reason it’s not the Broncos, I’d expect the Packers to finish with the top offense in the league.

Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 – I think Bridgewater will become a very good NFL QB.  He isn’t gonna get their quite yet in his first season, but if he is given the chance to play, he will make the Browns look stupid for picking Johnny Football over him when both QBs were still available.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 – The Falcons were not as bad last season as their record would indicate.  A slew of injuries kept them from reaching their potential.  They will recover some this season, but may still fall short of the playoffs, but I think they sneak in thanks to some tie-breakers.

Carolina Panthers: 5-10 - Compared to last season’s Panthers team, the version they send out this season will look much more like your average house cat than a Panther.

New Orleans Saints: 11-5 – Drew Brees on offense and a Rob Ryan led defense.  I’m in.  If the Saints can figure out a way to get the top seed in the NFC, they would have a similar walk to the Super Bowl as the Seahawks did last season thanks to their incredible home field advantage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8 – I think Lovie Smith was the best head coaching hire of the off season.  The Bucs were not as awful as their record indicated last year.  They are one year away from being a legitimate contender in this division.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals: 10-6 – Their defense will take a step back this season due to injury but I am much more bullish on their offense than your average person.  No Carson Palmer is not an MVP candidate, but I think he is smart enough to make the right reads and distribute the ball accordingly.  My biggest concern is if he can stay on his feet facing the rest of the NFC West defenses.

St. Louis Rams: 6-10 – Potentially the best defensive front 7 in the NFL.  The secondary will be average and the offense will be below average.  I don’t think they would have been much better with Sam Bradford and his season-ending injury maybe only sways my prediction by one game.  Take a look at your Fantasy league; does anyone have a single St. Louis Ram offensive player on their team? (Unless you were on auto-draft and picked Bradford).

San Francisco 49ers: 8-8 – Pretty much everything that could have gone wrong for the Niners has this off season.  Suspensions and injuries have turned this champion contender into a middle of the pack team.  Not to mention a coach that never denied trying to leave for Cleveland.   I see the Niners starting off the season slow before figuring it out around week 8 and fighting for a wild card spot, but coming up just short.

Seattle Seahawks: 12-4 – Not much to say about the Hawks.  They will be good again.  The biggest difference I see from last season to this season is a much improved offense.  I know it’s only preseason, but at one point, over a two game stretch, Russell Wilson led his offense down the field to score on 9 consecutive possessions.  Not only did they score, he made it look so simple and absolutely picked apart the opposing defenses.  I think Wilson takes another big step forward this season, but the Madden curse may hit the Seahawks defense who I believe will make a slight decline this season.

AFC Playoffs:

Wildcard Round

#3 Cincinnati vs. #6 Baltimore – Winner: Bengals

#4 Indianapolis vs. #5 San Diego – Winner: Chargers

Divisional Round

#1 Denver vs. #5 San Diego – Winner: Broncos

#2 New England vs. #3 Cincinnati – Winner: Patriots

AFC Championship

#1 Denver vs. #2 New England – Winner: Patriots

NFC Playoffs

Wildcard Round

#3 New Orleans vs. #6 Atlanta – Winner: Saints

#4 Philadelphia vs. #5 Arizona – Winner: Eagles

Divisional Round

#1 Seattle vs. #4 Philadelphia – Winner: Eagles

#2 Green Bay vs. #3 New Orleans – Winner: Saints

NFC Championship

#3 New Orleans vs. #4 Philadelphia – Winner: Saints

Super Bowl

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots – Winner: Saints